When asked on CBS’s “Face the Nation” of Biden’s earlier reference to him as an “autocrat,” Erdogan said he did not understand what Biden meant.

But another reason Erdogan so badly wanted to meet with Biden must have been to bolster his hand as he goes into tough negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin this week. The Turkish leader believes Turkey is neither part of the transatlantic community nor Eurasia, neither East nor West, but a resurgent power in its own right. He doesn’t want to be a Russian vassal, but he doesn’t trust the West either. Angling for a role in the great power competition, he has skillfully played Russia against the United States and vice versa, all the while increasing Turkey’s footprint in places such as Libya, Syria and the Caucasus.

But this gambit is getting more difficult, as his domestic standing looks weaker and his balancing act resembles a roller coaster. Ankara made a series of strategic errors over the past few years, including ending the peace process with the Kurds, alienating Europeans, abandoning Western norms and purchasing Russian missile systems, which ended up derailing relations with Washington and got Turkey kicked out of the F-35 program for new-generation fighter jets. In Syria, Turkey has helped increase Russia’s footprint at the expense of United States — only to find that Moscow ultimately wants the Syrian regime to gain control of the country and will not shy away from pushing a million refugees toward the Turkish border, as it did in Idlib last year.

The second is making sure the Russian gas contracts that are up for renewal will not cause massive price hikes at home. That, too, is ultimately critical to Erdogan’s political survival.

The meeting between Erdogan and Putin lasted nearly three hours, and it’s hard to know what Turkey got out of it. But what is clear is that Erdogan’s traditional balancing act is no longer working, and Putin is the one in a position of strength, able to pressure Turkey economically and in Syria. If Erdogan had not alienated his NATO partners, or if he did not face a critical majority at home, no doubt he would have found it easier to push back against Putin.

But alas. Winter is coming and the Russians are turning up the heat in Idlib and raising the price of heat in Turkey. Right now, the world probably does not seem very fair to the Turkish leader. And more than anyone, he may have himself to blame for that.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/09/29/erdogan-putin-biden-turkey-balancing-act/